The Champaign Room - Complete Coverage: Illinois Football Week 6A Fighting Illini community since 2012https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48193/tcr-fave.png2014-10-17T09:00:03-05:00http://www.thechampaignroom.com/rss/stream/66702862014-10-17T09:00:03-05:002014-10-17T09:00:03-05:00FILM REVIEW: Purdue Boilermakers
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<figcaption>Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>We broke down the five worst plays from the Purdue game to get you through your bye weekend.</p> <p>Mercifully, Illinois will take its first bye this week, which means there isn't a defense about which fans may complain. HOWEVER, because this is the Champaign Room and we're all about helping you fulfill your duties as an Illini football fan, we're providing you with some prime, Grade A, 100 percent, purely horrific defense to whine about all day and night.</p>
<p>The following examples are the five biggest plays Purdue ran against Illinois two Saturdays ago. As always with Illinois football, viewer discretion is advised.</p>
<h5><b>Play #1: Mostert Rush Left, 44 yards for a Touchdown</b></h5>
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<img alt="Play 1-1" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XWCuYWiP7m0lqNVERyP2Aq01zIA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2351938/Play_1-1.0.png">
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<p>So here we have a play that Wisconsin essentially brought to the Big Ten (to my knowledge, at least). It's an inside zone run with a fly sweep action to distract the defense. The idea is to force the defense to respect the sweep, in the form of linebackers and safeties shading to the bottom of the screen, from this perspective.</p>
<p><span>Earnest Thomas III</span> and <span>T.J. Neal</span> make the appropriate adjustments and slide down a bit. <span>Taylor Barton</span> (top right) slides down as well, but goes a bit too far for the situation in my opinion. <span>Zane Petty</span> and two linebackers would've been there if the sweep had been the play call. In any case, Purdue's left tackle is going to block <span>Eaton Spence</span>, the left guard is going to move Chunky Clements, and the center and left guard are going to double team <span>Austin Teitsma</span>.</p>
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<img alt="Play 1-2" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tuzuVodyBZZ6ftKyfv1VW7D9EeM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2351944/Play_1-2.0.png">
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<p>Here is the critical point of the play. As the handoff occurs, it's fairly clear where <span>Raheem Mostert</span> is headed-the gap between the left guard and center. There's no shame in Teitsma being beaten by a double team, but either Mason Monheim or Chunky Clements has to step up and plug the hole. Clements (dude with three arrows pointing to him) is unfortunately shoved aside by the guard, leaving Monheim as the only able body.</p>
<p>For some unknown reason, in spite of the clear direction of the handoff, Monheim anticipates a cutback and makes a quick jump towards the bottom of the screen. He tries to flash back into the correct hole, but that moment's hesitation costs him a chance to stop this for a gain of merely a few yards. Instead, Mostert flies through the hole, past an over-rotated Taylor Barton, and into the end zone.</p>
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<img alt="Play 1-3" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7axPiEPwe6S-y4wmWThhFk8tpDI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2362826/Play_1-3.0.png">
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<p>Making matters worse, Barton takes a poor angle to the ball carrier. He underestimates Mostert's speed and runs directly towards him. <i>Mostert is <b>currently</b> a star for Purdue's track and field team</i>. It should be well known that he has wheels. How Barton could make this mistake is beyond me. If he didn't know that Mostert was fast, that's probably on the coaching staff.</p>
<p>Ultimately though, this play came down to <span>Mason Monheim's</span> ability to identify the play call and Chunky Clements' ability to get off a block. Both failed in this instance, Monheim more egregiously. This was easily preventable and is one of the few plays in this sequence when the runner went untouched.</p>
<p>Here's video of the entire play, with a slow motion version directly following. View the horror yourself. Feast your eyes upon the incompetence. Feel sad.</p>
<p><iframe frameborder="0" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/PJL5tEL_sD4?list=PLi-AEq-uqxoLOsu2llEbUhxgr3pon0zeQ" height="360" width="640"></iframe></p>
<h5><b>Play #2: Hunt Rush Middle, 54 yards for a Touchdown</b></h5>
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<p>Once again, Purdue is just going to run a simple zone play and Illinois is going to find a way to screw up. At handoff, this play doesn't look terrible. DJ Woods is ready in case Appleby decides to keep the ball, and most of the defensive line was able to push Purdue's OL back a yard or two.</p>
<p>The key players to look at on this play are denoted by the various arrows. Three are pointing to Austin Teitsma, as Purdue's center shoves him down to the inside. At the very least, Teitsma was able to get a small amount of push. Another arrow is pointing to Jihad Ward (I think), who is locked in a battle with Purdue's right guard. He will have an opportunity to make a play, if he can just get off that block. Spoiler alert: he cannot get off that block.</p>
<p>The player in a dashed circle is T.J. Neal, who will ultimately screw up the worst on this play. He essentially takes the role of Mason Monheim in the last play we looked at-he has a clear path and a clear view of the running back, and he chooses to go in the opposite direction for reasons unknown.</p>
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<p>Half a second later, Teitsma is on the ground, Jihad Ward is unable to get his hands outside of the Purdue guard's, and T.J. Neal has inexplicably jumped to his left (top of the screen). Neal's jump vacates the hole and <span>Akeem Hunt</span> needs little more than a step of hesitation to blow by Neal.</p>
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<p>By this point, all is lost. Neal misses a shoestring tackle attempt and is left in the dust: there is nobody behind him to save this from turning into a touchdown.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most egregious part of this play is the down-and-distance situation. IT IS THIRD DOWN WITH ONE YARD TO GO. Purdue spread the Illini out just a bit with their formation, but there's absolutely no excuse not to be prepared for a run right up the middle in this situation. No excuse at all. Chalk this bad play up to Teitsma and Ward's failure to seal the A gap and Neal's failure to occupy it in their absence.</p>
<p><iframe frameborder="0" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/zRtEtjF3pPo?list=PLi-AEq-uqxoLOsu2llEbUhxgr3pon0zeQ" height="360" width="640"></iframe></p>
<h5><b>Play #3: Appleby Pass to Anthrop, 80 yards for a Touchdown</b></h5>
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<p>First, notice: all 22 players are either inside the hashes or barely outside them. While this doesn't <i>really </i>mean anything, one imagines big plays rarely occur from this Purdue formation. Not this time.</p>
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<p>Two seconds after the snap, notice the complete lack of pressure applied by the Illini front four. Both defensive ends tried to swim inside of the tackles, only to find the entire rest of the offensive line waiting for them. Nobody is even close here, and the ends' failure to contain leaves acres of open space to either side of Appleby.</p>
<p>As should happen when a team brings four rushers, the coverage is pretty solid in the early stages of this play. Illinois has a man or two in the vicinity of every receiver, and three available to cover all sides of <span>Danny Anthrop</span> (middle of the field). Naturally, he will receive the touchdown on this play.</p>
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<p>Another second or two later, Appleby has rolled out to the right to buy some more time and threaten a scramble. V'Angelo Bentley is going to peel out of his coverage and charge towards Appleby, looking to force an early throw. This is fine-Bentley knows that Taylor Barton and Mason Monheim are behind him.</p>
<p>My only issues with this play thus far are the lack of pressure by the DL and that Taylor Barton has conceded his deep coverage and now finds himself right next to the receiver. As a safety, I would expect him to be a few yards downfield to prevent a big play. That could be results-oriented analysis, but it seems sound. As we'll find out, this ends up costing the team.</p>
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<p>This is just prior to the throw. Honorary Space Cadet Mason Monheim has his head in the clouds and is no longer following the receiver, instead choosing to...help two Illini tackle a quarterback who's almost out of bounds? Not great. Meanwhile, Taylor Barton has joined Monheim on the outskirts of Jupiter and decides to step behind the receiver. Perhaps he's trying to jump in front of the pass for an interception, but he's a full step behind Anthrop and is the last Illini defender behind the receiver. Both of those boneheaded plays combine to create the next image.</p>
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<img alt="Play 3-5" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GT6gWCCVqEoNqou3j7ISSpjWEQA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2362842/Play_3-5.0.png">
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<p>Barton misses a weak attempt at a tackle. I put in a thought bubble for the "LOL" here, but I wouldn't be surprised if Anthrop actually laughed audibly at his fortune.</p>
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<p>To make matters worse, here comes <span>Zane Petty</span> to attempt a tackle. The orange line represents a rough estimate of Petty's path to the ball. Instead of running to a point 10-15 yards ahead of the receiver and meeting him there, Petty runs directly towards him and somehow ends up running parallel to the receiver. This is a consistent problem for the Illinois safeties. The Illini quite possibly would have won this game if not for poor angles extending big plays into touchdowns.</p>
<p>Also a consistent problem-- Appleby was continuously able to use his mobility and extend passing plays outside the pocket. To me, that says the Illini weren't prepared for a decent runner and didn't focus on keeping contain. Most of Purdue's big passing plays on the day came outside the pocket.</p>
<p><iframe frameborder="0" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/ugghL7DpD8c?list=PLi-AEq-uqxoLOsu2llEbUhxgr3pon0zeQ" height="360" width="640"></iframe></p>
<h5><b>Play #4: Appleby Rush Middle, 62 yards to the Illini One</b></h5>
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<p>Here is a draw play for Appleby. Illinois' defensive ends rush five yards upfield, which wouldn't be bad if this were actually a pass play. It is not. This leaves Rob Bain (circled), <span>Jake Howe</span>, and T.J. Neal (circled) to make a tackle. If any of these three successfully gets off a block, the Illini stop Appleby for a maximum gain of five yards. Guess what happens.</p>
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<img alt="Play 4-2" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DMDPTzTStbY6LI8B3nUig2T163s=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2362848/Play_4-2.0.png">
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<p>Jake Howe is completely turned around and taken out of the play at this point (white arrow). T.J. Neal is being manhandled by a Purdue offensive lineman: Neal is also out of the play. Our hopes rest on the shoulders of Rob Bain, who has improved noticeably this year. He appears to get an arm on Appleby as he's falling to the ground, and...</p>
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<img alt="Play 4-3" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/uZD5dLHYw5x98cOtNodp19C5H-o=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2362850/Play_4-3.0.png">
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<p>Appleby bursts through the tackle attempt. Bain is unable to wrap up or even slow Appleby down. That giant orange face was my face upon watching the replay: -____-</p>
<p>After I finished shaking my head in disgust, I saw <span>Clayton Fejedelem's</span> attempt to tackle Appleby. I don't know how much the Illini had prepared for Appleby (I expected <span>Danny Etling</span> to at least start the game), but clearly Fejedelem doesn't know how fast Appleby is. He takes an angle just a few yards ahead of Appleby, who will subsequently blow by him and take the ball down to the one-yard line.</p>
<p>No safety should ever be running parallel to a ball carrier: the Illini have done it in spectacular fashion on the last two plays I've covered. Here's the video:</p>
<p><iframe frameborder="0" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/p9jRc_Xsm2M?list=PLi-AEq-uqxoLOsu2llEbUhxgr3pon0zeQ" height="360" width="640"></iframe></p>
<h5><b>Play #5: Green Rush Right, 53 yards to the Illini 13</b></h5>
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<img alt="Play 5-1" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AzThMBrz45_NazyM5qGscvdAUfY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2362852/Play_5-1.0.png">
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<p><i>Day XII: Battered and bruised, I've nearly reached the fourth quarter in my film review of the Purdue game. I should be able to return home to you soon, my love. The setting of this play is inauspicious for Purdue: the Illini have nine defenders in the box and there are only seven <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.hammerandrails.com/">Boilermakers</a> blocking. It's a third-and-one; surely the Illini are expecting a run play and will stuff it in the backfield.</i></p>
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<p><i>Day XIII: Almost the entire Illini defense forces their way into the Purdue line. Still, the right side of the line clears out a hole for Green to run through. <span>DeJazz Woods</span> (top arrow) is easily pushed aside by a tight end. An Illini defensive tackle (we believe it to be Jarrod "Chunky" Clements) is easily dispatched by Purdue's right tackle. Mason Monheim blitzes the A gap and finds a pile of fat dudes awaiting him. This leaves V'Angelo Bentley alone in the hole with a 210-pound running back. We fear for his health.</i></p>
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<img alt="Play 5-3" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1frTNJq2Dem9nn94Z-9kK2sqrVk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2362872/Play_5-3.0.png">
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<p><i>Day XVIII: It's been four days since our last meal. Stress eating ran rampant upon viewing Bentley's missed tackle and Ralph Cooper's failure to get off a block. Clayton Fejedelem just took another horrible angle to a ball carrier. Luckily, the ball carrier is fat and slow. He still ran 53 yards before anybody caught him. Three Illini defenders are running parallel to the running back on the final play. Purdue's quarterback is somehow further downfield than seven of the 11 Illini defenders. </i></p>
<p><i>What began as a fear for <span>V'Angelo Bentley's</span> safety begat the destruction of our entire crew. Morale is low and rations are thin. I fear we may not make it back. Merely three quarters have ended, but the toll on our souls of watching the Illini defense may have ended the game of our lives.</i></p>
<p><iframe frameborder="0" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/dHFb8rkhguQ?list=PLi-AEq-uqxoLOsu2llEbUhxgr3pon0zeQ" height="360" width="640"></iframe></p>
<p align="center">***</p>
<p>That got weirdly dark.</p>
<p>The problems shown are visible throughout every level of the defense. The Illini defensive line was consistently shoved aside by Purdue's relatively average offensive line-that ain't good. When they weren't pushed aside, they failed to get off any blocks. When they got off blocks, they failed to make the tackle.</p>
<p>When the defensive line was taken out of the play, the linebackers consistently made the wrong read and filled the wrong hole-often for no reason at all. There was literally not a single reason for Monheim and Neal to jump aside on the Mostert and Hunt rushes above-not a single one. Monheim is in his third year as a starter. It's inexcusable, both for the players and the coaches, for poor reads like that to occur.</p>
<p>Lastly, once the defensive line has fucked up and the linebackers have fucked up, it's the safeties' turn. Plays that could go for a <i>mere</i> 30 yards are turned into touchdowns by the ludicrous angles Illinois is taking to streaking ball carriers. Whether that comes down to pre-game scouting or simply mental mistakes on the field, it's costing the Illini football games. Oh yeah, and nobody in the secondary can tackle, except maybe Eaton Spence and <span>Jevaris Little</span>, my kick coverage man crush.</p>
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<p>We suck. We suck bad. Enjoy your weekend.</p>
<p><i>Follow The Champaign Room on Twitter at <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/Champaign_Room">@Champaign_Room</a> and </i><a href="https://www.facebook.com/TheChampaignRoom" target="_blank"><i>Like us on Facebook</i></a><i>. You can follow Matt Silich on Twitter at </i><a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/msilich2"><i>@msilich2</i></a><i>.</i></p>
https://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/17/6972781/Illinois-football-film-review-purdue-boilermakers-fighting-illiniMatt Silich2014-10-08T08:00:03-05:002014-10-08T08:00:03-05:00The Statistical Brain Dump: Purdue Boilermakers
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<figcaption>This happened all day long. | Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Illinois lost to Purdue by double digits. We broke down the worst loss for the Illini in quite some time.</p> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>"If Illinois loses to Purdue, then I will hand craft a torch and pitchfork and join these fans at the gates of Hell."</p>
— The Champaign Room (@Champaign_Room) <a href="https://twitter.com/Champaign_Room/status/516087319783174144">September 28, 2014</a>
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<p>Well, here I stand, pitchfork and torch at my side.</p>
<p>Last week, when I told people to relax after the defense's embarrassing performance against Nebraska, there was obviously a lot of blowback. From watching the game once through, it just felt like the Illini were merely beaten by an infinitely more talented team. That talent disparity shouldn't have appeared against Purdue, which is why I'm still confident that it was prudent to let the NEB game go. The offense was going to move the ball more easily against a poor Purdue team, especially with <span>Wes Lunt</span> back in action. Certainly the defense would also perform better against such a weak offense.</p>
<p><span>And yet, against all odds, the Illini defense actually performed worse than they did against Nebraska. Funnily, if Illinois had played D as well as they did against Nebraska, they would have beaten Purdue with a decent amount of ease. It's not hard to see the truth in this.</span></p>
<p>Against Nebraska, which averaged over 7.5 yards per play prior to facing Michigan State, Illinois gave up 6.9 yards per play. Some of it in garbage time, yes, and the Nebraska averages come mostly from games against weak competition, but still that's about the performance you'd expect from a bad defense. The Illini were frequently in the right spots, but the front seven was just completely overpowered by Nebraska's athletes. Nebraska was sixth in the nation in yards per play-- that's a damn good offense and there's little shame in not being able to stop them (though obviously that would be preferable).</p>
<p>Purdue? Well, Purdue is a completely different story. Coming into the game, Purdue averaged 4.36 yards per play; 120th in the nation. Illinois allowed <b>8.5 yards per play </b>to one of the worst offenses in the entire country. Appleby showed much more poise on Saturday than Etling had ever shown on a football field in his life, but that doesn't excuse the ridiculously poor effort of Illinois' defense.</p>
<p>Anything over six yards per play against Purdue would have been an abomination: this was an unrelenting massacre. The most frustrating plays of the game were (rather obviously) the explosive ones, which were largely caused by missed tackles. Tim Beckman himself noted this at Monday's presser:</p>
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<p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/illini?src=hash">#illini</a> Beckman: Missed tackles key to breakaway runs vs. Purdue. Gave up 342 yards on 7 plays.</p>
— Jeremy Werner (@WernerESPNCU) <a href="https://twitter.com/WernerESPNCU/status/519189212713979904">October 6, 2014</a>
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<p>Assuming the math is correct, Illinois gave up 62.1 percent of Purdue's total offensive yardage on seven of their 65 total plays (10.7 percent). Stripping away those plays, Purdue averaged...3.6 yards per play, which actually would've been a very nice performance for the defense. Obviously you can't just do take those away-- that's why everybody is mad at Tim Beckman remaining overly optimistic this week --but Illinois showed themselves capable of stopping this team for the majority of the game.</p>
<p>Tackling is an interesting problem for a team to have, because it's hard to know whether the players are failing to do their jobs, the coaches aren't teaching something essential, or the team just has really bad luck in one-on-one situations. Regardless of the cause, there were myriad opportunities to tackle Purdue on a couple of these plays, and nobody on the Illini defense was up to the task. This has been a problem for Illinois for the last couple years. Whether due to player errors or coaching errors, this is the main issue preventing Illinois from having an average defense this season.</p>
<p>Primiano was in the press box this Saturday. He said that by the third or fourth gigantic Purdue play, all the writers and reporters could do was simply laugh. They laughed their asses off because Illinois football has become a punch line. When the unending futility of the Illini against a shitty team like Purdue is a joke even to those who cover them, it's time for changes to be made. In the absence of several more wins and obvious improvement from the team throughout the rest of the year, which are almost certainly not on the horizon, it's time for Illinois to fire Tim Beckman.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">***</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b>Red Zone Performance</b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Illinois was four-of-eight in the red zone on Saturday. That's not touchdowns, that's in scoring any points whatsoever. They scored four touchdowns, and had zero points on the other four trips. If Illinois kicked a field goal on the other four trips to the red zone, they win by one point. If Illinois scored a touchdown on the other four trips to the red zone, they win by 17 points and hang a 55 spot on a team that held Iowa to 24 last week. The Illini also failed to convert on fourth-and-two from the Purdue 23-yard line, which basically makes them four-of-nine on attempts to score in the red zone. The offense performed well in this game, but they wasted a lot of open chances to win, even in spite of the defense shoving their heads into a blender for three hours and 18 minutes. Three of those failed red zone appearances came on the final three drives of the game, which leads me to my next point...</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b>Fourth Quarter Dominance Yet Again</b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Though it's almost entirely ignored due to the injury to Lunt and the failure to actually score points, Illinois dominated the fourth quarter against a bad team yet again. Purdue began the quarter at the Illini 13-yard line, following a long drive. They would score a touchdown to finish that drive. After that drive, Illinois ran 27 plays for 170 yards (6.3 per play) and Purdue ran six plays for 17 yards (2.83) as they went three-and-out twice. Sadly, this didn't make a difference in the final score, as Illinois finished their drives with a blocked field goal, a turnover on downs, and an interception. This has been one of the few problems with Illinois' offense, both this year and last, and would help them win a lot more games if fixed.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b>Fourth Down Playcalling: Guh.</b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">I almost jumped out of my pants when Beckman sent the offense out to go for it on fourth-and-two early in the second quarter. The Illini were at the Purdue 23-yard line, the same situation I mentioned earlier, and called a timeout to think it over before sending out the offense. This is the right call, for several reasons.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Though the Illini were up 14-7 and it was still early, the defense had just given up a long play and touchdown to Purdue. If a shootout is in the works, as became pretty clear early one, it's always best to aggressively go for touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. Not only that, but the Illini have a very unreliable kicking situation at the moment. Couple that with the swirling, crazy winds that were roaring through Memorial Stadium and you have plenty of motivation to go for more points. The only objection I have here is with the play call-- why on Earth is Illinois throwing a 25-yard pass to the end zone on fourth-and-two? Either come up with the best run play you have or throw the ball four-to-eight yards down the field. It's best not to overcomplicate things against a bad team and a bad defense.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Later, on fourth-and-two again from the 13-yard line of Purdue, Beckman curiously attempted a field goal. His logic behind it was pretty obvious: the Illini were down by 11 points in the fourth quarter and Beckman was hoping for the guarantee of bringing Purdue's lead down to just one score. There are a couple of problems with that logic:</p>
<ul>
<li>At the time of this kick, there were about six minutes left in the game. Surely, after Purdue had gashed his defense all day, Beckman wouldn't base his entire strategy off of his defense? Yes, moving to a one-score game is good, but who's to say that Purdue doesn't march right down the field yet again and hit a field goal or score a touchdown? Down by that many points, and with few possessions left, the Illini have to be trying to re-gain as many points as possible. It's also possible that Purdue could've been stopped on the following drive, but with very little time left. Perhaps the Illini never reach as close as the 13-yard line again and have to throw a hail mary instead of attempting to set up a field goal.</li>
<li>Beckman kicked on a fourth-and-two, when earlier in the game he had gone for a touchdown in almost the exact same situation (and at that time, he was in the lead!). As football writer Bill Barnwell of Grantland always says, if you don't have the cojones to go for it on fourth-and-short, you will almost certainly face a fourth-and-longer later in the game. Indeed, on the very next drive the Illini faced fourth-and-goal from the four-yard line. Perhaps they could've kicked a field goal instead of having to go for the touchdown, had they gone for it in a more amiable situation on the previous drive.</li>
<li>Lastly, why would you rely on Reisner to kick a 30-yard field goal in the first place? The wind, though it had settled a bit, was still blowing at a substantial pace. Not only that, but on the drive <i>just beforehand</i>, Reisner had missed a 19-yard extra point! The XP wasn't blocked, he straight up missed it. </li>
</ul>
<p>The decision to be conservative on that fourth-and-two didn't cost the Illini the game by itself, but it certainly didn't help their situation. I thought that Beckman may have been past his idiotic game management when he went for it on fourth-and-two early in the game, but apparently he has yet to improve that aspect of his coaching.</p>
<p><b>Wes Lunt</b></p>
<p>I would be remiss not to mention the best player on either side of the field. Lunt heartbreakingly hobbled down the field in between plays and struggled to get up after multiple hits. Every ounce of my body wanted to scream at him to just stay down as the game began to look more and more like a loss. Mercifully, one hit was too much for Lunt and he could no longer continue. His final stat line: 27-of-39 passing for 332 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Aside from a poor throw to <span>Josh Ferguson</span> in the flats and one or two inaccurate passes, Lunt was chucking dimes on one leg the entire game. He completely carved up an experienced Purdue secondary in spite of taking hit after hit after hit.</p>
<p>As for the Illini offensive line, this was a pathetic performance. Over and over, they allowed the most important player on the team, who was already playing with an injury, to get hammered. Obviously this is easy to say from the perspective of a blogger, but damn it just seemed like the right tackles gave up on Saturday. It takes a lot for me to mention a possible ack of effort or anything like that, because it's hard to know anything from the stands, but <span>Reilly O'Toole</span> is gonna suffer the same fate Lunt did if the OL doesn't get it together at some point. Ohio State is going to sack the Illini quarterback, whomever it may be, ten or more times. Wes Lunt is a fucking warrior for getting up every time his fellow Illini let him down.</p>
<p><b><span>Mike Dudek</span></b></p>
<p>It's impossible not to love Mike Dudek. It is just not humanly possible. An undersized, under-recruited just turned in the best performance from an Illini receiver since A.J Jenkins. Steve Hull had a couple ridiculous games last year, but he didn't have the absurd receiving ability of Dudek. The man can catch anything within a five-mile radius. He was just named to the Biletnikoff award watch list and more than deserves the honor. <span>Geronimo Allison</span> has all the physical tools you love in an outside receiver, but Mike Dudek has already become my favorite football player to watch in a long, long time. I only wish that the defense didn't suck so much in this game-- if they hadn't, a lot more people would be talking about his circus catches and ridiculous athleticism. Get him a Klondike bar.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">***</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">As depressing as that game was, it's not a complete death knell for the season. That pesky rational and statistically-inclined portion of my brain says that we just saw the worst performance for an Illini defense in a long, long time. They showed earlier this year, in every single game, that they are better than Saturday's effort. If they perform up to par, Illinois still has a chance to win a home game or two this year. If they perform above what they've shown this season, Illinois' offense can carry them to a win against several teams remaining on the schedule.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">It's unlikely, but I'm not going to give up on the possibility of another victory. Up next is Wisconsin, who will demolish the Illini. All I'm hoping to see is that this team refuses to give up, as they've done in every game this year. Unfortunately, however they perform will likely be too little, too late for Tim Beckman and his staff.</p>
<p><i>Follow The Champaign Room on Twitter at <a href="https://twitter.com/Champaign_Room" target="_blank">@Champaign_Room</a> and </i><a target="_blank" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheChampaignRoom"><i>Like us on Facebook</i></a><i>. You can follow Matt Silich on Twitter at </i><a href="https://twitter.com/msilich2" target="_blank"><i>@msilich2</i></a><i>.</i></p>
https://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/8/6910987/the-statistical-brain-dump-purdue-boilermakersMatt Silich2014-10-04T15:27:19-05:002014-10-04T15:27:19-05:00Game Recap: Hard Reset Required - Illini Lose Bad
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<figcaption>Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>I want to quit, but I can't.</p> <p>As I write this, there is a Purdue fan on TV dancing with joy. The game's not over, they just started the 4th quarter, but it's <i>over</i>. The Illini have been about as-- Purdue just scored again. It's 38-27.</p>
<p>Tim Beckman stands on the sideline with a blank face -- he doesn't look confused, angry, downtrodden, or at work trying to make a comeback -- his face is just blank. Does he hear the death knoll toll?</p>
<p>The offense is driving down the field, trying to make it seem like they're the better team. <span>Wes Lunt</span> goes down with some kind of leg injury. He's been fighting through it for most of the second half. I do commend him for the game he's produced. Not only has he fought through an injury, but he's thrown 332 yards and 2 touchdowns and the Illini do still have a chance to win. But there not necessari-- What?!? A blocked field goal?! What else can possibly go wrong?</p>
<p>This defense has been atrocious all day, so bad that it almost seems blatant. There are <i>multiple</i> wide-open running lanes for Purdue's running back <span>Akeem Hunt</span> and quarterback <span>Austin Appleby</span>, who is starting his first career game. They both ran all over the Illini defense, who looked overmatched from the start -- unwilling to make a tackle or even get in the way (except <span>Mason Monheim</span>, I partially excuse him). They allowed 8.7 -- EIGHT POINT FREAKING SEVEN -- yards per rush, 349 total rushing yards and 4 touchdowns to a team that previously ranked 89th nationally in rushing offense. Add on 202 yards of passing and the Illini have given up 551 total yards.</p>
<p>Illinois can't. They just can't. Can't what? Can't anything.</p>
<p>Ok, that's slight overkill. Absolute devastation is making me say things I probably shouldn't. (I even blamed Tom Fornelli for making me a Tim Beckman believer.) There has been a shortage of bright spots today but they've only come on offense.</p>
<p>As previously mentioned, Lunt had a pretty good day. He still has that arm that makes long throws look easy, yet he sometimes can't make the short throws. In the third quarter, the Illini offense made it into the redzone and immediately threw an incomplete backwards pass, aka: a fumble, which was recovered by Purdue. I'm not sure I've ever seen a college quarterback who can throw beautiful deep bombs like Lunt, but there are dozens of quarterbacks who can throw better short throws.</p>
<p>The thickest layer of the silver lining is <span>Mike Dudek</span>, the freshman receiver who catches all. He made 8 catches for 200 yards. He continues to impress beyond what any of us could've hoped. But the powers of Lunt and Dudek and the rest of the offense cannot raise enough hope to offset the gloom of Illinois' football future. Today marks the last moment of faith in head coach Tim Beckman.</p>
<p>He is a dead man walking.</p>
<p>He's had two and a half years to rebuild this program, and with it he's produced <i>a single </i>B1G win with little to no improvement whatsoever. The team is flat and unprepared every week. Illinois has been in a holding pattern of futility for years, waiting for Beckman to make a step forward. He hasn't. The waiting is over, we restart from here.</p>
<p>I doubt Athletic Director Mike Thomas will make any changes in the middle of the season. We'll have to wait another two months, but you can be sure it will happen. It's going to be a long two months but it will have a payoff at the end.</p>
<p>I don't usually like the phrase, but in this case it applies:</p>
<p><i>When does basketball start?</i></p>
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https://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/4/6907989/game-recap-hard-reset-required-illinois-fighting-illini-purdue-boilermakersAaron Rench2014-10-04T14:20:08-05:002014-10-04T14:20:08-05:00Purdue 38, Illinois 27: This Is Rock Bottom
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<figcaption>Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>There isn't much to say. This is the end of the Tim Beckman era.</p> <p>I drove 516 miles yesterday afternoon, stopping once in Macon, MO so as to get to Champaign as soon as possible. I grabbed a sandwich from Penn Station and drove to my hotel room. I left a warm Manhattan for a surprisingly frigid Champaign. I finally got to meet Jim and Matt, as well as a handful of media members, all of whom were just as nice in person as they have been online.</p>
<p>The last time I had the good fortune to be at Memorial Stadium for an Illinois game was the Fresno State miracle two point conversion loss.</p>
<p>Today was worse.</p>
<p>Purdue was averaging 3.9 yards per carry coming in to today's game. They were one of the worst offenses in the nation. They put up over 550 yards on Illinois. That is simply unacceptable.</p>
<p>There were positives. Before his offensive line allowed him to be beaten into oblivion, <span>Wes Lunt</span> completed 69% of his passes for 332 yards and two touchdowns. <span>Mike Dudek</span> caught eight passes for 200 yards. <span>Josh Ferguson</span> had yards from scrimmage and a TD to boot.</p>
<p>That's it. We missed an extra point. We had a field goal blocked. We gave up a 51 yard run to a fullback. A fullback. There was a 44 yard TD run for Purdue. A 54 yarder as well. An 80 yard TD pass. A 62 yard run from a quarterback.</p>
<p>The fact that Tim Banks is still employed is a direct insult to your intelligence as a fan. That's not hyperbole.</p>
<p>Tim Beckman needed to win this game to have any chance of keeping his job. He didn't. And he shouldn't. It's time to pull the plug. Make Cubit the interim. I don't care. A home loss to a Purdue team that couldn't even beat Central Michigan. This is what rock bottom looks like.</p>
https://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/4/6908009/purdue-38-illinois-27-this-is-rock-bottomMark Primiano2014-10-04T10:00:03-05:002014-10-04T10:00:03-05:00Game Thread: Illinois vs Purdue
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<figcaption>Courtesy of Illinois Athletics</figcaption>
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<p>Conversation and info for Illinois' Week 6 matchup against the Purdue Boilermakers</p> <h3>Illinois (3-2) vs Purdue (2-3)</h3>
<p id="paragraph0"><strong>When</strong>: Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014 | 11 am CT</p>
<p id="paragraph1"><strong>Where</strong>: Memorial Stadium | Champaign, IL</p>
<p id="paragraph2"><strong>Television</strong>: ESPN2 | <a href="http://watchespn.com/">Watch Online WatchESPN.com</a></p>
<p id="paragraph3"><strong>Announcers</strong>: Beth Mowins, Joey Galloway and Paul Carcaterra</p>
<p id="paragraph4"><strong>Radio</strong>: <a href="http://bit.ly/ISNAffiliates">Illini Sports Network</a> | <a href="http://tunein.com/search/?query=illini">Listen</a> | <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.siriusxm.com%2Fcollegefootballschedule&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thechampaignroom.com%2F2014%2F10%2F4%2F6900497%2Fgame-thread-illinois-vs-purdue" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sirius 113 / XM 195</a></p>
<p id="paragraph5"><strong>Opposing SB Nation Blog</strong>: <a href="http://www.hammerandrails.com/">Hammer and Rails</a></p>
<p><strong>Illinois Uniforms</strong>:</p>
<p></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"> <p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ORANGEOUT?src=hash">#ORANGEOUT</a> on Saturday. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Illini?src=hash">#Illini</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/uniwatch?src=hash">#uniwatch</a> <a href="http://t.co/QEh3e33SIh">pic.twitter.com/QEh3e33SIh</a></p>— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) <a href="https://twitter.com/IlliniFootball/status/517828265923584000">October 3, 2014</a> </blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p><span><script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></span></p>
<p><strong>Illinois Injury Report</strong>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p id="paragraph8"><em>#12 </em><span><em>Wes Lunt</em></span><em>: Cleared to play</em></p>
<p id="paragraph9"><em>#28 </em><span><em>Jaylen Dunlap</em></span><em>: Out</em></p>
<p id="paragraph10"><em>#34 </em><span><em>Mike Svetina</em></span><em>: Out</em></p>
<p id="paragraph11"><em>#93 </em><span><em>Teko Powell</em></span><em>: Out</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>*****</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/3/6897377/illinois-footballl-game-six-preview-purdue-boilermakers" target="_blank">Game Preview</a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/3/6884905/illinois-football-vs-purdue-predictions-week-6">TCR Staff Predictions</a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/3/6906245/complete-coverage-illinois-football-week-6" target="_blank">Complete Coverage: Illinois Football Week 6</a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>*****</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span><em>Follow The Champaign Room on Twitter at </em><a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/Champaign_Room">@Champaign_Room</a><em> and </em></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/TheChampaignRoom" target="_blank"><em>Like us on Facebook</em></a><em>. You can follow Jim Vainisi on Twitter at </em><a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/JVainisi005"><em>@JVainisi005</em></a><em>.</em></p>
https://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/4/6900497/game-thread-illinois-vs-purdueJim Vainisi2014-10-03T12:00:03-05:002014-10-03T12:00:03-05:00Illini vs. Purdue Predictions Thread
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<figcaption>Bradley Leeb-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>The TCR staff weighs in on whether or not they think the Illini can get back on track at home against the Boilermakers this Saturday.</p> <p>Ah, October 5th, 1946. I remember it like it was yesterday. That was when Illinois, under 5th-year head coach Ray Eliot, put a hurting on the Boilermakers 43-7 in Champaign. It remains their largest margin of victory ever against Purdue, and the Illini will hope to duplicate that type of performance this Saturday when they welcome the Boilers into town. It is arguably one of the most important games of Tim Beckman's career as Illinois head coach, because if the Illini were to lose this one, his seat would continue to grow hotter. See if our staff writers think Beckman can put some breathing room between him and a pink slip below when they make their game predictions, but we want to hear from you too! Be sure to give us your pick in the comments section.</p>
<h3><b>Game Predictions</b></h3>
<p><b>Jim Vainisi --- Illinois 31, Purdue 24</b></p>
<p>I predict we'll see more of what we've been seeing from this Illini team on Saturday. The offense will get off to a slow start and Purdue will take the lead into halftime. Fans panic, but Lunt orchestrates another come-from-behind victory. Suddenly the team is 4-2 and with two more wins they're bowling.</p>
<p style="font-weight: bold;"><b>Mark Primiano --- </b>Illinois 42, Purdue 20</p>
<p>Wes Lunt is back and healthy. That is fantastic news. Also fantastic news? Purdue ranks 96th in points scored per games. They rank 81st in points allowed per game. And that's with games against Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and SIU. Tim Beckman should get his first home conference win and the first laugher of the 2014 season.</p>
<p><b style="font-weight: bold;">Aaron Rench --- </b><b>Illinois 41, Purdue 17</b></p>
<p>Yeah, that's right; Illinois wins quite easily. Lunt starts out hot, Ferguson and Young get plenty of handoffs, and the defense is in Danny Etling's face all game. All of this combines for a great week including the silence of Beckman haters. This will be the most dominant game of the Fighting Beckmans.</p>
<p style="font-weight: bold;"><b>Colin Whitchurch --- </b>Illinois 30, Purdue 20</p>
<p>I don't know if this is going to be a game where both defenses are so incompetent that it becomes a shootout or if it's going to be a game where both teams are just so all-around incompetent that points are at a premium, but I'm thinking it will be somewhere in between.</p>
<p style="font-weight: bold;"><b style="font-weight: bold;">Bryce Smith --- </b><b>Illinois 43, Purdue 19</b></p>
<p>I have been pretty realistic (and accurate) this season when it comes it comes to picks, and I think I'll be close again this Saturday. Illinois will finally get to see the blowout win their fans have all been waiting for all season. Tim Beckman's seat will cool down a little bit and Illini fans will calm down a little bit. The offense will be able to play well and the defense will continue its trend of tackles-for-loss and turnovers; it will be too much for Purdue.</p>
<p style="font-weight: bold;"><b>Brad Repplinger --- Illinois 38, Purdue 15</b></p>
<p>Since we don't know much about Wes Lunt and his leg injury, one would think that his movement in the pocket this game will be limited. That being the case, look for more quick slants and screen passes for short gains and the offense to methodically move the ball down the field. I would also love to see Josh Ferguson run for over 100 yards and have over 150 all purpose yards. Defensively, all I want to see is Purdue stay out of the endzone. With the way that our linebackers/STAR position players have played recently, I think that wish may in fact come true. Give Mr. Paul Griggs five field goals and put it on my tab!</p>
<p style="font-weight: bold;"><b>Trevor Vallese --- Illinois 28, Purdue 20</b></p>
<p>This game will be much closer than it should be. I imagine this is one of the few Big Ten matchups that the Boilermakers feel like they have a chance to actually win, and if it were in West Lafayette I'd be much more dubious about Illinois' chances. But let's face it, Purdue is simply a bad football team and I think if Wes Lunt is playing and is relatively healthy, the Illini will pull out a victory.</p>
<p><b style="font-weight: bold;">BONUS PREDICTION: </b>The defense will come up with their first truly big stop of the season when Purdue drives to the Illinois 10-yard line but is stopped on 4th down and goal to end the game.</p>
<p>Matt Silich's prediction can always be found in his excellent weekly game preview (seriously, <a href="http://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/3/6897377/illinois-footballl-game-six-preview-purdue-boilermakers">check it out</a>). Again, drop by below to tell us what you think is going to happen this weekend!</p>
https://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/3/6884905/illinois-football-vs-purdue-predictions-week-6Trevor Vallese2014-10-03T10:21:28-05:002014-10-03T10:21:28-05:00NCAA Football Simulation: Illinois vs Purdue
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<figcaption>Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Never have I ever thrown a TV remote in frustration...until now</p> <p>Video games have provided countless hours of entertainment to kids (and some adults) across the country for years. They are a escape from reality and give the player the opportunity to explore new worlds and try new things that may not be possible. This stimulates the player's mind and imagination and always seems to have them asking, "what if?"</p>
<p>As I watched this week's simulation between the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.thechampaignroom.com/">Illinois Fighting Illini</a> and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.hammerandrails.com/">Purdue Boilermakers</a>, I thought to myself, "what if Saturday's game looks exactly like this?" I'm not sure if any of you are planning on attending the game Saturday in Memorial Stadium or simply watching the game from home, but this is NOT how we want things to go.</p>
<p>Allow me to explain...</p>
<h3><i><u>1st Half</u></i></h3>
<p>This one opened up with a wonderful scoring drive by the Illini, capped off by a <span>Malik Turner</span> 6-yard touchdown grab from <span>Wes Lunt</span> to put the Illini ahead 7-0. After punting the next series, the Illini would score on their next 2 possessions (one <span>Josh Ferguson</span> run for 11 yards, and one Josh Ferguson touchdown catch for 2 yards) and just like that, they were ahead 21-0. Purdue's Paul Griggs would tack on a Field Goal from 35 yards out, and the end of the first quarter resulted in a 21-3 Illini lead.</p>
<p>And then the Second Quarter happened (I'll give you the readers digest version).</p>
<p>First a 88-yard touchdown run from Ferguson, then another 35-yard Griggs Field Goal made it 28-6 Illini. Then, a <span>Danny Etling</span> touchdown pass of 3 yards to <span>Danny Anthrop</span> and a 1-yard touchdown pass to <span>Akeem Hunt</span> cut the Illini lead to 28-20. A 37-yard pass from Lunt to <span>Mikey Dudek</span> was answered on the next possession by Etling to Anthrop (again) from 4 yards out (throw in a missed 2-pt conversion for the Boilers) and the score was 35-26. One last touchdown pass from Lunt to <span>Donovonn Young</span> would cap off a 44 combined point total. Wes would end the game with 321 total passing yards (26-61 42%) and the Illini would coast into halftime.</p>
<p><b><i>Halftime Score: ILLINI ~ 42 Purdue ~ 26</i></b></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<h3><i><u>2nd Half</u></i></h3>
<p>The Third Quarter opened up strong for the Illini, as Josh Ferguson would scamper 78 yards on the opening play for a touchdown and a 49-26 Illini lead. He would finish with just 346 rushing and 3 touchdowns. The defense would lock down the Purdue offense limiting them to a mere 48 yards of offense in the quarter and also added a fumble recovery to the mix. <span>David Reisner</span> would add a 45-yard Field goal and the Illini were up 52-26 heading into the fourth quarter.</p>
<p> </p>
<p style="text-align: center;">***IF YOU'RE HAVING A GOOD DAY, STOP READING. IT ONLY GOES DOWNHILL FROM HERE***</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">***SERIOUSLY, THIS IS THE PART WHERE WE BLOW A 26 POINT LEAD IN THE 4TH QUARTER***</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">***THIS IS NOT A DRILL***</p>
<p>The fourth quarter was a complete disaster for the Illini. It started with a 10-yard run by <span>Raheem Mostert</span>, and was followed on the next series by a 44-yard touchdown pass from Etling to <span>Justin Sinz</span> cutting the Illini lead to 52-40. Then Wes threw a pick and the Boilers scored again. This time, a broken play resulting in a 2 yard touchdown run by Etling to cut the lead to 52-46 (the Boilers would again fail to convert on a 2 point conversion). Wes would throw another pick on the next series and Griggs would boot a 21 yard Field Goal home to make it 52-49 with under two minutes left. Purdue used 2 timeouts to stop the clock around the 1:30 mark and on a 3rd and 7 for the Illini, Wes would throw ANOTHER interception. Etling and the Boilermakers would run the ball down to the 3 yard line and with just :14 seconds left, Akeem Hunt would punch the ball into the endzone.</p>
<p>Here are a few depictions of what happened next:</p>
<p><span><img src="http://rewards4mom.s3.amazonaws.com/2014/02/tv-throw-o.gif"></span></p>
<p><span><img src="http://gifwall.net/gif/gw-throwing-tv-out-window.gif"></span></p>
<p><span><img src="http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view3/3425104/tv-smashing-o.gif"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Please let this be wrong...</p>
<p><b><i>FINAL SCORE: ILLINI ~ 52 Purdue ~ 56</i></b></p>
https://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/3/6896345/ncaa-football-simulation-week-6-purdue-illinoisBrad Repplinger2014-10-03T09:00:02-05:002014-10-03T09:00:02-05:00WEEK SIX PREVIEW: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hRhIkxIXxhi0ef9wZbMpeduIyOk=/0x0:3976x2651/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/40755726/456232550.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Eric Francis</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hide the children and break out the Windex coladas because Illinois and Purdue have a football game to play.</p> <p><span>THE WHEN AND WHERE</span></p>
<p>Game: <a href="https://www.hammerandrails.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Purdue Boilermakers</a> vs. <a href="https://www.thechampaignroom.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Illinois Fighting Illini</a> (-9)</p>
<p>Time: 11:00 AM Central Time - Saturday, October 4<sup>th</sup></p>
<p>Place: Memorial Stadium - Champaign, Illinois</p>
<p>TV: ESPN2 - Beth Mowins and Joey Galloway (GUH)</p>
<h4>THE UNIFORMS</h4>
<p>ALL - ORANGE - EVERYTHING</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ORANGEOUT?src=hash">#ORANGEOUT</a> on Saturday. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Illini?src=hash">#Illini</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/uniwatch?src=hash">#uniwatch</a> <a href="http://t.co/QEh3e33SIh">pic.twitter.com/QEh3e33SIh</a></p>
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) <a href="https://twitter.com/IlliniFootball/status/517828265923584000">October 3, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</p>
<h4>THE INJURY REPORT</h4>
<p><i>#12 <span>Wes Lunt</span>: Cleared to play</i></p>
<p><i>#28 <span>Jaylen Dunlap</span>: Out</i></p>
<p><i>#34 <span>Mike Svetina</span>: Out</i></p>
<p><i>#93 <span>Teko Powell</span>: Out</i></p>
<p>The big note here is that Wes Lunt is available to play. They would not have noted him on the injury report if he couldn't go (one would think...). Jaylen Dunlap continues his Year Of The Injuries, and Teko Powell is absent once again. Svetina has yet to return from his injury after last season.</p>
<h4>THE THEM</h4>
<h5>THE OFFENSE</h5>
<p>Given Illinois' struggles thus far to contain running backs, it stands to reason that we should begin by taking a look at Purdue's trio. <span>Raheem Mostert</span> leads the Boilermakers in carries this year, but didn't see any action against Iowa last week. Mostert is billed by some as "the fastest player in college football", so he's probably somebody to look out for. That said, he's averaging just 4.4 yards per carry, which indicates he may not be much of a threat. The other guy who probably isn't much to worry about is Keyante Green. He's averaging fewer yards per carry than Mostert and has just 21 carries through five games, so Illinois won't focus much on him. He did carry several times against Iowa, but that seemed mostly to be related to the absence of Mostert.</p>
<p><span>Akeem Hunt</span> on the other hand, has been the Boilers' best back through five weeks. Hunt is yet another impressive Big Ten back, with speed and shiftiness unmatched by other Purdue RBs. Hunt hasn't been relied on as a workhorse in any game this year, but typically seems to get 10-15 carries each outing. With those, he's acquired six yards per run, far better than any other back. Purdue's inexperienced line has actually done a decent job of blocking on run plays, especially for Hunt.</p>
<p><span>Quarterback Danny </span><span>Etling is not a big running threat but Purdue will still try to run the read option against Illinois-- that is their primary running play along with zone shenanigans and the occasional power play. </span><span>Purdue is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry, but that's mostly a function of the abuse Etling has taken under center this year. Etling has been sacked roughly one million times this year as the Purdue offensive line has struggled mightily to protect anything.</span></p>
<p>With such difficulties in pass protection, Purdue sticks mostly to intermediate and short passing plays. The key for Illinois, both in the run game and the pass game, is to stick to their assignments and prevent any plays from breaking wide open. This game should be approached similarly to the Western Kentuckys and Texas States of the world (teams of similar quality to Purdue): don't let the big plays beat you and take advantage of the inevitable mistakes a quarterback like Etling will make.</p>
<h5>THE DEFENSE</h5>
<p>Purdue's defense has been the relative strength of the team thus far, if you can call it that. The D ranks 71st in the nation in S&P+, which is pretty decent when one compares it to the offense's ranking of 99th in the country. They were able to stand up to Iowa last week and prevent the Hawkeyes from gaining a single first down throughout the entire first quarter. In fact, the defense was responsible for seven of the ten Boilermaker points in last week's game.</p>
<p>Purdue has had a decent amount of success getting after the quarterback this year, totaling 13 sacks in 2014. <span>Ryan Watson</span> leads the team with four sacks thus far from the nose tackle position (weird). Interestingly, Watson isn't even listed as a starter on Purdue's depth chart. The front seven for Purdue overall is decent, but there aren't any particularly special players. <span>Ryan Russell</span> is supposed to be the biggest threat for the team positionally, as he plays a hybrid lineman/linebacker role, but he's only had one tackle for loss in 2014.</p>
<p>The leader in tackles for loss is...<span>Anthony Brown</span>, a starting cornerback. Brown is statistically the best player on the defense. His five TFLs lead the team as mentioned and he's also tied for the team high in pass break-ups (4) with safety Frankie Williams. Purdue's secondary is very experienced, with two juniors and two fifth-year seniors. This probably explains why the team excels at preventing big plays, probably the most successful aspect of their defense this year.</p>
<p>Ultimately, Purdue will be able to hold Illinois from scoring, but they should be able to move the ball. Iowa pounded away in true Ferentz fashion and was eventually able to break down the Boilermaker front seven. This group is, quite simply, susceptible to the running game. Look for <span>Josh Ferguson</span> and <span>Donovonn Young</span> to have some success moving the ball in each of their unique ways. It goes against Bill Cubit's offensive ideal to keep the ball on the ground, but that seems to be the area in which Illinois will have the most success on Saturday.</p>
<h4>THE NAME OF THE WEEK</h4>
<p><span>Bearooz Yacoobi</span>. <i>Bearooz. Yacoobi. </i><b>BEAROOZ YACOOBI. </b>After a pretty rough outing last week, Purdue brings a solid roster of interesting names like <span>Austin Appleby</span> and DeAngelo Yancey. But, Bearooz Yacoobi. Bearooz Yacoobi.</p>
<h4>THE #FATGUYTOUCHDOWN UPDATE OF THE WEEK</h4>
<p>From last week: =(</p>
<blockquote>
<p><span>Jake Howe</span> still has yet to make an appearance at fullback. This makes me sad. The saddest, in fact. The #FATGUYTOUCHDOWN Alert System is at #FATCON5 this week. Maybe a defensive tackle will have a pick six or something. Sadness.</p>
</blockquote>
<h4>THE FIVE KEY POINTS</h4>
<p>1. <b>Shore up the run defense. </b>This is a tall order for a team that has really struggled to defend the run, but it would be excellent to keep Akeem Hunt and company contained this weekend. <span>Danny Etling</span> is going to flounder in third-and-long situations: Illinois has to get him into those predicaments. Illinois continues to give up 100 yards to nearly every rusher they face, including two last week. The reasonable goal for tomorrow afternoon is to keep all of Purdue's running backs from individually eclipsing 100 yards. Something like a 70-40-20 yardage split would be an excellent performance for the Illini, though its certainly unrealistic.</p>
<p>2. <b>Run the dang ball, Bill. </b>Cubit has a tendency to get away from the run game after just one or two unsuccessful plays. If Iowa had done that last week, they may have lost. Keep pounding away at this front seven. I'm sure the Illini will have a little success in the passing game, but the protection probably hasn't been good enough to guarantee that Lunt stays clean against this pass rush. Keep the ball on the ground if the passing game isn't working: it's not going to cause the apocalypse to run it down their throats.</p>
<p>3. <b>No turnovers. </b>Yeah, yeah-- I could put this down every week and say it's important because the team is good or bad or whatever. I kind of have done that. Regardless, this is perhaps the most important thing for Illinois each week. The reason that Nebraska game turned from a loss into an embarrassing loss was because <span>Reilly O'Toole</span> threw three bad interceptions. Keeping it on the ground could help here, though we know that Lunt/Cubit are going to take a few shots down the field.</p>
<p>4. <b>Safety play. </b>As previously stated, this Purdue offense is rather incapable of creating big plays through the passing game. Tackling in the secondary will be important to prevent intermediate routes and running plays from going a long way. This has been a huuuuuuge struggle for Illinois (not necessarily the safeties, but everybody in the back seven), and it can't continue to be one against a team like Purdue. I have a feeling that they'll try to dink-and-dunk the ball down the field like most other inferior teams have against Illinois-- this has to stop working at some point and now would be a great time for that to happen.</p>
<p>5. <b>Get off blocks. </b>This point is made much easier by not having to play against Nebraska's mammoth offensive line. Those guys are really, really good and <span>Ameer Abdullah</span> just makes them look better. This is somewhat related to the run defense, but also applies to the pass rush. Illinois didn't get after the QB all that much last week, but had great results when they did (obviously). Etling is shaky as all hell in the pocket. Wreck his confidence by getting in his face early on and he'll struggle to do much of anything against the Illinois secondary.</p>
<h4>THE PREDICTION</h4>
<p>An excerpt from my <a target="_blank" href="http://dciab.wordpress.com/2014/10/02/dciapc-2-6-heres-a-college-football-column-where-we-dont-talk-about-the-michigan-situation-youre-welcome/">weekly betting post</a> with friends on our personal blog sums this up nicely:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Illinois is slightly better than last year, as is Purdue, and though the [2013] game at Ross Ade was close, Illinois turned the ball over four times and just about every other statistic pointed to a fairly easy win for the Illini. If somebody put a gun to my head and asked me to predict a margin of victory for this game, I would choose Illinois by at least 14 at home...but I can't. Purdue isn't good, but <b>Illinois has struggled against weaker teams and let them hang around all year long</b>, even at home. I'm still waiting for the solid statistical performances Illinois has had against poor opponents to turn into a true blowout, but<b> little mistakes continue to haunt the Illini</b> in these games. I would be shocked if Illinois lost this game, but <b>I can't trust them to cover a spread this large.</b> Purdue +10.5 [Ed: The line has moved.]</p>
</blockquote>
<p>After thinking more, I wouldn't be <i>shocked </i>if Illinois lost this game, but the fact remains that Illinois is the more talented and...uh...[whispers] better coached(?) team. Their defensive line shouldn't get manhandled like they did last week against Nebraska and they should be able to run the ball. Frankly, I think Illinois should cruise to victory in this one, unless Purdue gets ahead early. That could be bad for Illinois, as it will force the Illini to stick to passing and ignore the relative weakness of the Purdue defense. The first quarter of this game could be extremely important, and we know how Illinois has done in previous weeks. This could be a comfortable win, but it's more likely an ugly nailbiter that just makes everybody a little nauseous inside. Exciting!</p>
<h5>Illinois Fighting Illini 24, Purdue Boilermakers 16</h5>
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https://www.thechampaignroom.com/2014/10/3/6897377/illinois-footballl-game-six-preview-purdue-boilermakersMatt Silich