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The TCR Top 40: You Should Have Listened To Us

The Champaign Room Top 40 thinks Top 25 polls are for wimps.

Listen, I don't want to brag about my rankings formula or anything, but I do feel the need to point something out. Over the course of this weekend's games, we saw five teams ranked in the top ten of the AP Poll lose. In total, we saw nine teams ranked in the AP Poll lose this week.

Well you know what?

Only two of the teams ranked in the top ten of TCR's rankings lost last week, and one of those losses was to another top ten team.

It's almost as if our rankings realized that those top ten teams weren't actually top ten teams this season. It's almost as if our formula is more accurate than the opinions of pollsters. Amazing how that works, huh?

Anyway, let's get to this week's rankings.

1. Alabama

Remember how Alabama gave up all of those points and yards against Texas A&M earlier this season and everyone began wondering if the Tide's defense wasn't that good anymore? Yeah, well, since that game Alabama has allowed 16 points total in its last five games. That includes shutouts of Ole Miss and Arkansas.

2. Florida State

Much like the BCS polls my formula moves Florida State ahead of Oregon thanks to its huge win over Clemson on Saturday night. Unlike the BCS polls, my formula actually takes the margin of victory into consideration. Though we do cap that margin because that's the sensible thing to do. Which is why the BCS removed it from the formula altogether, because the BCS doesn't do the sensible thing, it does the stupid knee-jerk reaction thing.

3. Oregon

He's already apologized for it, but Nick Aliotti's comments following Oregon's win over Washington State on Saturday night were some of the stupidest things I've ever heard a coach say following a game. He was literally upset with Washington State because it didn't just lay down and die against the Ducks.

4. Missouri

There are two teams from the SEC ranked in the top five and they are Alabama and Missouri because, duh, who else from the SEC would be ranked in the top five? These are two powerhouses we're dealing with here. Seriously, though, Missouri can practically wrap up the SEC East this weekend if it beats a South Carolina team that won't have its starting quarterback.

5. Baylor

I bet Baylor fans enjoy the TCR Top 40 more than they do the BCS. Once again, that margin of victory thing I was talking about with Florida State comes in to play here. Sure, Baylor's played a weaker schedule than Ohio State, but Baylor's beaten the shit out of everybody on that weak schedule.

6. Ohio State

Where as Ohio State -- whose has only played the 76th toughest schedule in the country -- is winning its games against FBS opponents by an average of 18.3 points per game. So, yeah, Ohio State may be 7-0, but anybody who has seen this team plays knows that it is far from dominant. Also, how funny would it be if Ohio State goes undefeated again this season yet doesn't get to play for the national title? Urban Meyer would be 24-0 at a Big Ten power house and not have a single title shot! Go B1G!

7. Miami

Miami came back to beat North Carolina on Thursday night, but does anybody really have enough confidence in this team to think it's actually going to beat both Florida State and Virginia Tech? I don't.

8. Texas Tech

I thought Texas Tech was going to get caught this weekend, but it came back to beat West Virginia and now it has moved into the top ten for the first time this season. This is one of those teams that is still undefeated, but I have no actual idea what to make of it. Honestly I don't think it'll be here much longer, as it's final five games of the season are Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor and Texas.

9. Stanford

Stanford is still very questionable on offense, but there are no questions about this defense. I covered this game on Saturday and the Cardinal defense absolutely shut down a very potent UCLA offense.

10. Clemson

You know, I'm not shocked that you lost to Florida State. I wouldn't even have been that shocked if you had lost the game by 20 points. But to get dominated like you were on Saturday night? God damn, Clemson. Even with your history I did not see that coming.

11. UCLA

12. Oklahoma

13. LSU

14. Northern Illinois

I know I bragged about my formula at the top of this post, but believe me, I know it's not perfect. There's no way Northern Illinois is actually the 14th best team in the country, but it hasn't lost, so whether it is this good it "deserves" to be here right now. Though there's no way in hell this team would deserve a BCS bid this season.

15. Fresno State

16. Auburn

17. Michigan

I have no idea what to make of you, Michigan. I really don't. And the problem is, neither do you.

18. Louisville

Louisville is great when it's not playing on national television when everybody is watching.

19. Michigan State

20. Oregon State

21. Oklahoma State

22. UCF

I was totally planning on ripping the Coaches Poll for having Louisville ranked nine spots ahead of UCF even though UCF's played a much tougher schedule and just beat Louisville at Louisville on Friday night. And then I ran the numbers for this week and Louisville came out four spots ahead of UCF and I was like "damn it."

23. Texas A&M

24. Nebraska

25. Virginia Tech

26. Wisconsin

The formula doesn't care that those Pac-12 refs screwed you. Much like UCF, I was going to rip the polls for having you as low as they do, but then my rankings came out and I was like "DAMN IT."

27. Arizona State

28. Ball State

29. South Carolina

30. Notre Dame

I understand that this team lost Everett Golson before the season, but how does Brian Kelly -- considering the offense he has run throughout his career -- not have three quarterbacks on his roster who can actually throw a football?

31. Houston

32. BYU

33. Georgia

34. East Carolina

35. Texas

36. Maryland

Maryland is dropping fast. After losing both Stefon Diggs and former Illini recruiting target Deon Long this week, the Terps have lost about 11 starters to injury this season. So theyr'e going to keep dropping.

37. Pitt

38. Boise State

39. Buffalo

40. Minnesota

Thanks, Gophers. Appreciate it.

Just Outside: Bowling Green, Cincinnati, Florida, Penn State, Arizona

And Illinois?: Following its loss to Wisconsin the Illini drop from 62nd to 76th.

THE BOTTOM TEN (from worst to just terrible)

1. New Mexico State

2. Western Michigan

3. Georgia State

4. Miami (Ohio)

5. Southern Mississippi

6. UConn

7. Eastern Michigan

8. Idaho

9. UMass

10. Hawaii

If you're interested in reading what I have to say about these teams, I started a new feature over at this week doing just that. It's called The Best Worst Ten.

Last week's rankings can be found here.

Follow The Champaign Room on Twitter at @Champaign_Room and Like us on Facebook. You can follow Tom Fornelli on Twitter at @TomFornelli.